![]() The southeastern United States is a region of the country where there exists particularly high societal vulnerability to tornadoes ( Ashley 2007 Ashley and Strader 2016)-especially for nocturnal tornadoes ( Ashley et al. ![]() (2008) found that nocturnal tornadoes are 2.5 times more likely to kill as those that occur during the daytime. The overnight hours, defined as 0300–1200 UTC in the present study, represent a time when society is particularly vulnerable to tornadoes. All of the differences highlight several forecast challenges, which this study analyzes in detail. Nocturnal coastal tornado predictability is shown to generally be lower than the other regimes. Additionally, this study assesses conditional November–May nocturnal tornado probabilities across a coastal domain embedded within the Southeast. However, selected ranges of multiple parameters are associated with slightly better predictability for the nocturnal Southeast regime. nocturnal predictability is generally similar to that within other regimes across the contiguous United States. This study demonstrates that November–May southeastern U.S. This study shows that effective bulk shear, effective storm-relative helicity, and effective-layer significant tornado parameter yield the strongest predictability for the November–May nocturnal Southeast regime among investigated parameters. This study compares conditional tornado probabilities across the Southeast during November–May nocturnal hours to those probabilities for all other November–May environments across the contiguous United States. In particular, this study uses the Statistical Severe Convective Risk Assessment Model (SSCRAM) to determine how well convective parameters explain tornado potential across the Southeast during the months of November–May and during the 0300–1200 UTC (nocturnal) time frame. This is accomplished by building upon previous research that assesses the predictive power of meteorological parameters. The purpose of this study is to highlight some of the characteristics distinguishing the convective environment accompanying these events. Tornadoes that occur at night pose particularly dangerous societal risks, and these risks are amplified across the southeastern United States. 2002) at 0400 UTC in (c) and 0600 UTC in (d) for mean sea level pressure (mb black contours with 4-mb interval), surface isotherms, surface isodrosotherms, and surface winds. (c),(d) Information pertaining to the mesoscale environment corresponding to (a) and (b), respectively mesoanalysis output ( Storm Prediction Center 2013b) based on surface objective analysis ( Bothwell et al. (2015) with city identifiers listed beside the ovals. Black ovals indicate locations of sounding analyses addressed by Cohen et al. Tornado paths marked as black segments from (a) 1200 UTC to 1200 UTC and (b) from 1200 UTC 22 Jan to 1200 UTC ( Storm Prediction Center 2013a).
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |